Tech's Butterfly Effect & the Power of Systems Thinking


Code & Conscience #017

In this Issue

I’m so excited to continue this three-part series! As many of you know, I've been wrestling with how to build tech products that people genuinely love without accidentally setting the world on fire. That wrestling match turned into my upcoming book! This newsletter is our second in-depth exploration of the ideas inside.

And my book is an attempt to give the practical guide I wish I had: one that connects Tech Strategy (what we choose to build) with Systems Thinking (how we understand its complex growth) and Equitable Systems (who it ultimately helps).

We’re continuing with part two in our series: Systems Thinking. If you missed the first part on Tech Strategy, click here to read it.

Systems Thinking: The Engine for Holistic Strategy

Building an equitable tech strategy requires us to move beyond linear thinking, the idea that feature A leads directly to revenue B. That framing is tempting because it feels clean and predictable, but it rarely reflects how technology actually operates in the real world. Systems thinking offers a more honest lens. It helps us see how different parts of an organization interact, how decisions ripple outward, and how technology can support broader, long-term business goals rather than solely short-term wins.

1. Understanding the Tech Ecosystem

Traditional problem-solving relies heavily on linear thinking. This approach assumes a straightforward cause-and-effect relationship, where one action logically leads to the next. Linear thinking works well for simple, contained problems and offers the comfort of a clear roadmap. Its limitation, however, is reductionism. By breaking problems into isolated parts, it often misses how those parts interact and influence one another

Systems thinking takes a different approach. It views challenges holistically, focusing on relationships, interactions, and patterns rather than isolated components. In complex environments, system behavior often emerges from these relationships, not from any single element. When we examine components in isolation, we miss what actually drives outcomes

At its core, systems thinking is about seeing the whole and understanding how parts interact within a larger structure. Several concepts anchor this discipline:  Feedback loops, mental models, relationships, and patterns.

  • Feedback loops show how variables influence one another over time. Positive feedback loops amplify change, such as network effects attracting more users. Negative feedback loops stabilize systems, such as load balancing, preventing server overload.
  • Mental models represent the assumptions and beliefs that shape how systems are designed and operated. Systems thinking surfaces these underlying structures so they can be examined and, when necessary, changed to support healthier long-term outcomes.
  • Relationships and patterns help leaders spot recurring issues and trends over time. These patterns often point to deeper structural problems that quick fixes fail to address.

2. Applying Systems Thinking to Technology Products

Technology products exist within inherently complex and interconnected systems. A product is not just code. It is embedded in a broader ecosystem shaped by competitors, regulation, infrastructure, talent, and users, all interacting and influencing one another.

From an internal perspective, systems thinking helps manage complex software architecture and reduce integration failures. Small changes in one area can have unexpected effects elsewhere, often surfacing only after deployment. Externally, organizations both affect and are affected by large-scale systems tied to environmental strain and social challenges, including pollution, water scarcity, and mental health impacts.

3. Identifying Unintended Consequences

Cause and effect do not always align neatly, and small changes can trigger outsized and unexpected shifts elsewhere in the system. A well-known illustration of this dynamic is the Butterfly Effect, which comes from chaos theory and highlights how minor initial changes can produce dramatic, nonlinear outcomes over time.

In technology, what might look like a subtle algorithm adjustment that reshapes what content goes viral can fundamentally change platform dynamics and user behavior. For example, a small user interface change can confuse customers and reduce engagement, triggering revenue loss through what is often called the ripple effect.

Below are some unintended consequences that show up when systems thinking is not applied:

  • Algorithmic consequences arise when AI models trained on narrow datasets behave unpredictably in new contexts
  • Fragmented optimization occurs when teams improve individual features without considering the overall user experience, resulting in disjointed products
  • Ignored interdependencies means that even well-intentioned decisions can produce negative outcomes when the system is not considered as a whole.

Conclusion

Systems thinking forces leaders to ditch shallow approaches and look deeper. For example, if a platform optimizes primarily for time on site and that metric contributes to harmful civic discourse, a linear response might focus on content moderation as a form of damage control. A systems approach would ask a deeper question. It would examine whether the core metric itself is driving the harm and explore alternative measures of success.

By understanding and reshaping system structures, organizations expand their strategic options and create conditions for more durable, equitable outcomes. This ability to integrate complexity and anticipate change is what enables leaders to guide technology toward sustainable growth and long-term value.

Around the Web

▶️ Designing a Sociotechnical Future by Caitlin Begg

​📖 Is AI a Solution, a Technology, or a System…and Why Should I Care? by Elizabeth Larson

​📖 Seeing Patterns Is a Superpower by Florin Branici

Good news, everyone! I'm now partnering with Bookshop.org to bring you recommendations based on books I'm reading on this issue's topics. That means I earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase, and your purchases support local bookstores! Bookshop.org has raised over $40M for independent book stores around the world!

Take a look at the new reads this week, all available on Bookshop.org

Book Cover: Systems Ultra. Making Sense of Technology in a Complex World by Georgina Voss Book Cover: Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows and Diana Wright

Erica Stanley

Engineering Leader, Community Builder, Speaker, Contributor

Code & Conscience is my way of thinking out loud with friends (that’s you, btw) about how we as technologists–builders, creators, leaders–impact the world around us with what we choose to build and how we build it.

Code & Conscience

This is my way of thinking out loud with friends (that’s you, btw) about how we as technologists–builders, creators, leaders–impact the world around us with what we choose to build and how we build it.

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